Talen Horton-Tucker
SF, Iowa State · 2019 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #46 (ORL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #34 overall (#8 at his position), but he lasted until pick #46: teams let him slide 12 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
18.6 years old on draft night (born 2000-11-25).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Iowa State.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 305 games over 6 NBA seasons (~62% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 6 |
| Games | 305 |
| Minutes / game | 19.5 |
| Points / game | 9.2 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.6 |
| Assists / game | 2.8 |
| Win Shares (career) | 6.0 |
| VORP | 0.0 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -2.0 |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 235 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 18.6 |
| Born | 2000-11-25 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #34 overall (#8 SF) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 43 | Jaylen Nowell | redraft #31 |
| 44 | Bol Bol | redraft #25 |
| 45 | Isaiah Roby | redraft #32 |
| 47 | Ignas Brazdeikis | redraft #42 |
| 48 | Terance Mann | redraft #13 |
| 49 | Quinndary Weatherspoon | redraft #47 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.