Jaylen Nowell
SG, Washington · 2019 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #43 (MIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #81 (#19 at his position); he went #43, 38 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
20.0 years old on draft night (born 1999-07-09).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (246 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Washington.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 205 games over 6 NBA seasons (~42% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 6 |
| Games | 205 |
| Minutes / game | 17.2 |
| Points / game | 8.9 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.2 |
| Assists / game | 1.9 |
| Win Shares (career) | 4.7 |
| VORP | -0.1 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -2.1 |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 20 | 50.4% n=246 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 186 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 20.0 |
| Born | 1999-07-09 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #81 overall (#19 SG) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 40 | Justin James | redraft #45 |
| 41 | Eric Paschall | redraft #29 |
| 42 | Admiral Schofield | redraft #38 |
| 44 | Bol Bol | redraft #25 |
| 45 | Isaiah Roby | redraft #32 |
| 46 | Talen Horton-Tucker | redraft #27 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.