Rudy Gay
SF, UConn · 2006 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #8 (HOU)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 1120 games over 17 NBA seasons (~80% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #5 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#8).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.9 years old on draft night (born 1986-08-17).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at UConn.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 17 |
| Games | 1120 |
| Minutes / game | 30.9 |
| Points / game | 15.8 |
| Rebounds / game | 5.6 |
| Assists / game | 2.0 |
| Win Shares (career) | 61.0 |
| VORP | 22.4 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 0.6 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 8", 222 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 19.9 |
| Born | Baltimore, MD |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #5 overall (#1 SF) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 5 | Shelden Williams | redraft #22 |
| 6 | Brandon Roy | redraft #7 |
| 7 | Randy Foye | redraft #11 |
| 9 | Patrick O'Bryant | redraft #35 |
| 10 | Mouhamed Sene | redraft #38 |
| 11 | JJ Redick | redraft #6 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.