Shelden Williams
PF, Duke · 2006 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #5 (ATL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #19 (#6 at his position); he went #5, 14 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.7 years old on draft night (born 1983-10-21).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Duke.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 361 games over 6 NBA seasons (~73% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 6 |
| Games | 361 |
| Minutes / game | 15.5 |
| Points / game | 4.5 |
| Rebounds / game | 4.3 |
| Assists / game | 0.5 |
| Win Shares (career) | 9.9 |
| VORP | -1.5 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -3.0 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 9", 258 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 22.7 |
| Born | Forest Park, OK |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #19 overall (#6 PF) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 2 | LaMarcus Aldridge | redraft #2 |
| 3 | Adam Morrison | redraft #47 |
| 4 | Tyrus Thomas | redraft #17 |
| 6 | Brandon Roy | redraft #7 |
| 7 | Randy Foye | redraft #11 |
| 8 | Rudy Gay | redraft #5 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.