Lionel Chalmers
PG, Xavier · 2004 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #33 (LAC)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #57 (#14 at his position); he went #33, 24 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 36 games over 1 NBA season (~44% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Age
23.6 years old on draft night (born 1980-11-10).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.6% of the time (138 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Xavier.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 1 |
| Games | 36 |
| Minutes / game | 12.0 |
| Points / game | 3.1 |
| Rebounds / game | 0.9 |
| Assists / game | 1.4 |
| Win Shares (career) | -0.2 |
| VORP | -0.4 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -5.3 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 23 or older | 48.6% n=138 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 180 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 23.6 |
| Born | 1980-11-10 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #57 overall (#14 PG) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 30 | Anderson Varejão | redraft #11 |
| 31 | Jackson Vroman | redraft #44 |
| 32 | Peter John Ramos | redraft #46 |
| 34 | Donta Smith | redraft #33 |
| 35 | Andre Emmett | redraft #36 |
| 36 | Antonio Burks | redraft #35 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.