Donta Smith
SF, Southeastern Illinois College · 2004 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #34 (ATL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #78 (#18 at his position); he went #34, 44 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
20.6 years old on draft night (born 1983-11-27).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (246 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Southeastern Illinois College.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 61 games over 2 NBA seasons (~37% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 2 |
| Games | 61 |
| Minutes / game | 9.2 |
| Points / game | 2.7 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.1 |
| Assists / game | 0.8 |
| Win Shares (career) | 0.5 |
| VORP | -0.2 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -3.2 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 20 | 50.4% n=246 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 230 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 20.6 |
| Born | 1983-11-27 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #78 overall (#18 SF) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 31 | Jackson Vroman | redraft #44 |
| 32 | Peter John Ramos | redraft #46 |
| 33 | Lionel Chalmers | redraft #40 |
| 35 | Andre Emmett | redraft #36 |
| 36 | Antonio Burks | redraft #35 |
| 37 | Royal Ivey | redraft #26 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.