John Jenkins
SG, Vanderbilt · 2012 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #23 (ATL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #37 (#10 at his position); he went #23, 14 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 171 games over 6 NBA seasons (~35% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Age
21.3 years old on draft night (born 1991-03-06).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Vanderbilt.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 9" at 6' 4" tall (+5.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (135 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 6 |
| Games | 171 |
| Minutes / game | 12.8 |
| Points / game | 5.0 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.5 |
| Assists / game | 0.8 |
| Win Shares (career) | 3.0 |
| VORP | 0.1 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -1.9 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +5 in. or more | 51.1% n=135 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 212 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 9" |
| Age on draft night | 21.3 |
| Born | Hendersonville, TN |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #37 overall (#10 SG) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 20 | Evan Fournier | redraft #11 |
| 21 | Jared Sullinger | redraft #19 |
| 22 | Fab Melo | redraft #55 |
| 24 | Jared Cunningham | redraft #43 |
| 25 | Tony Wroten | redraft #54 |
| 26 | Miles Plumlee | redraft #24 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.