Jason Thompson
PF, Rider University · 2008 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #12 (SAC)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #30 (#8 at his position); he went #12, 18 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.9 years old on draft night (born 1986-07-21).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Rider University.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 588 games over 8 NBA seasons (~90% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 8 |
| Games | 588 |
| Minutes / game | 25.2 |
| Points / game | 8.9 |
| Rebounds / game | 6.6 |
| Assists / game | 1.1 |
| Win Shares (career) | 23.8 |
| VORP | -2.4 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -2.6 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 11", 250 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 21.9 |
| Born | 07/21/1986 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #30 overall (#8 PF) |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 9 | D.J. Augustin | redraft #12 |
| 10 | Brook Lopez | redraft #3 |
| 11 | Jerryd Bayless | redraft #27 |
| 13 | Brandon Rush | redraft #29 |
| 14 | Anthony Randolph | redraft #32 |
| 15 | Robin Lopez | redraft #14 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.