Robin Lopez
C, Stanford · 2008 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #15 (PHO)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #14 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#15).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
20.2 years old on draft night (born 1988-04-01).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (246 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Stanford.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
C (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (182 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 992 games over 16 NBA seasons (~76% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 16 |
| Games | 992 |
| Minutes / game | 21.1 |
| Points / game | 8.4 |
| Rebounds / game | 4.7 |
| Assists / game | 0.8 |
| Win Shares (career) | 49.6 |
| VORP | 4.6 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -1.1 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 20 | 50.4% n=246 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Center | 51.1% n=182 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 7' 0", 245 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 20.2 |
| Born | Fresno, Calif. |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #14 overall (#4 C) |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 12 | Jason Thompson | redraft #23 |
| 13 | Brandon Rush | redraft #29 |
| 14 | Anthony Randolph | redraft #32 |
| 16 | Marreese Speights | redraft #22 |
| 17 | Roy Hibbert | redraft #18 |
| 18 | JaVale McGee | redraft #15 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.