Jerryd Bayless
PG, Arizona · 2008 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #11 (IND)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #25 (#5 at his position); he went #11, 14 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.8 years old on draft night (born 1988-08-20).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Arizona.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 586 games over 11 NBA seasons (~65% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 11 |
| Games | 586 |
| Minutes / game | 21.3 |
| Points / game | 8.4 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.1 |
| Assists / game | 2.9 |
| Win Shares (career) | 18.6 |
| VORP | 1.1 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -1.6 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 204 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 19.8 |
| Born | Phoenix, Ariz. |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #25 overall (#5 PG) |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 8 | Joe Alexander | redraft #42 |
| 9 | D.J. Augustin | redraft #12 |
| 10 | Brook Lopez | redraft #3 |
| 12 | Jason Thompson | redraft #23 |
| 13 | Brandon Rush | redraft #29 |
| 14 | Anthony Randolph | redraft #32 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.