James Johnson
PF, Wake Forest · 2009 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #16 (CHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #30 (#6 at his position); he went #16, 14 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.3 years old on draft night (born 1987-02-20).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Wake Forest.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 786 games over 16 NBA seasons (~60% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 16 |
| Games | 786 |
| Minutes / game | 19.8 |
| Points / game | 7.4 |
| Rebounds / game | 3.5 |
| Assists / game | 2.0 |
| Win Shares (career) | 27.4 |
| VORP | 9.3 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 0.4 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 8", 257 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 22.3 |
| Born | Cheyenne, WY |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #30 overall (#6 PF) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 13 | Tyler Hansbrough | redraft #25 |
| 14 | Earl Clark | redraft #41 |
| 15 | Austin Daye | redraft #36 |
| 17 | Jrue Holiday | redraft #5 |
| 18 | Ty Lawson | redraft #10 |
| 19 | Jeff Teague | redraft #7 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.