Earl Clark
SF, Louisville · 2009 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #14 (PHO)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 261 games over 6 NBA seasons (~53% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #22 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#14).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.4 years old on draft night (born 1988-01-17).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Louisville.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 6 |
| Games | 261 |
| Minutes / game | 13.9 |
| Points / game | 4.4 |
| Rebounds / game | 3.0 |
| Assists / game | 0.5 |
| Win Shares (career) | 2.9 |
| VORP | -0.8 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -2.8 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 10", 226 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 21.4 |
| Born | Rahway, N.J. |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #22 overall (#4 SF) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 11 | Terrence Williams | redraft #47 |
| 12 | Gerald Henderson | redraft #27 |
| 13 | Tyler Hansbrough | redraft #25 |
| 15 | Austin Daye | redraft #36 |
| 16 | James Johnson | redraft #16 |
| 17 | Jrue Holiday | redraft #5 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.