Arnett Moultrie
PF, Mississippi State · 2012 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #27 (MIA)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 59 games over 2 NBA seasons (~36% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #26 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#27).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.6 years old on draft night (born 1990-11-18).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Mississippi State.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 2" at 6' 11" tall (+3.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 2 |
| Games | 59 |
| Minutes / game | 12.4 |
| Points / game | 3.6 |
| Rebounds / game | 3.1 |
| Assists / game | 0.2 |
| Win Shares (career) | 1.7 |
| VORP | -0.1 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -2.8 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 11", 233 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 2" |
| Age on draft night | 21.6 |
| Born | Memphis, TN |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #26 overall (#8 PF) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 24 | Jared Cunningham | redraft #43 |
| 25 | Tony Wroten | redraft #54 |
| 26 | Miles Plumlee | redraft #24 |
| 28 | Perry Jones | redraft #36 |
| 29 | Marquis Teague | redraft #52 |
| 30 | Festus Ezeli | redraft #28 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.