Zaven Collins
LB, Tulsa · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #16 (ARI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #27 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#16).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Tulsa: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.67 40-yard dash at 259 lbs: faster than 42% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 83 of ~85 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2025 (~98%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 90 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 24 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.6 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 25.6 |
| Defense | 172 tackles, 13 sacks, 2 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 259 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.67 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| Shuttle | 4.36 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.63" / 9.38" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #27 overall (#1 LB) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 13 | Rashawn Slater | redraft #22 |
| 14 | Alijah Vera-Tucker | redraft #80 |
| 15 | Mac Jones | redraft #20 |
| 17 | Alex Leatherwood | redraft #123 |
| 18 | Jaelan Phillips | redraft #47 |
| 19 | Jamin Davis | redraft #83 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.