Mac Jones
QB, Alabama · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #15 (NWE)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #15 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#15).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Alabama: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.72 40-yard dash at 217 lbs: faster than 69% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 63 of ~85 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2025 (~74%). Plus 1 game so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 64 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 34 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 34.1 |
| Passing | 1236/1859, 12,741 yds, 67 TD, 50 INT |
| Rushing | 183 att, 477 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 217 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.72 s |
| Vertical | 32" |
| Broad jump | 116" |
| 3-cone | 7.04 s |
| Shuttle | 4.39 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.63" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #15 overall (#5 QB) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 12 | Micah Parsons | redraft #1 |
| 13 | Rashawn Slater | redraft #22 |
| 14 | Alijah Vera-Tucker | redraft #80 |
| 16 | Zaven Collins | redraft #42 |
| 17 | Alex Leatherwood | redraft #123 |
| 18 | Jaelan Phillips | redraft #47 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.