Alex Leatherwood
OL, Alabama · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #17 (LVR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #60 (#2 at his position); he went #17, 43 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Alabama: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.96 40-yard dash at 312 lbs: faster than 93% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
OL (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 21 of ~34 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2022 (~62%). Last NFL season: 2022.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 21 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 8 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 8.0 |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 312 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.96 s |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| Arm / hand | 33.88" / 9.25" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #60 overall (#2 OL) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 14 | Alijah Vera-Tucker | redraft #80 |
| 15 | Mac Jones | redraft #20 |
| 16 | Zaven Collins | redraft #42 |
| 18 | Jaelan Phillips | redraft #47 |
| 19 | Jamin Davis | redraft #83 |
| 20 | Kadarius Toney | redraft #133 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.