Zach Miller
TE, Arizona St. · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #38 (OAK)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 110 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2014 (~86%). Last NFL season: 2014.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #48 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#38).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Arizona St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.87 40-yard dash at 256 lbs: faster than 11% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 110 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 28 |
| Receiving | 328 rec, 3,804 yds, 20 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 256 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.87 s |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 115" |
| 3-cone | 7.01 s |
| Shuttle | 4.42 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #48 overall (#2 TE) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 35 | Arron Sears | redraft #94 |
| 36 | Kevin Kolb | redraft #104 |
| 37 | Eric Weddle | redraft #5 |
| 39 | Justin Blalock | redraft #19 |
| 40 | John Beck | redraft #155 |
| 41 | Chris Houston | redraft #52 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.