John Beck
QB, BYU · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #40 (MIA)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
26 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 9 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2011 (~11%). Last NFL season: 2011.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #43 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#40).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
BYU: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.75 40-yard dash at 215 lbs: faster than 63% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 9 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 4 |
| Passing | 140/239, 1,417 yds, 3 TD, 7 INT |
| Rushing | 19 att, 55 yds, 3 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2011 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 215 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.75 s |
| Vertical | 29.5" |
| Broad jump | 111" |
| 3-cone | 6.81 s |
| Shuttle | 4.17 s |
| Age at draft | 26 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #43 overall (#4 QB) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 37 | Eric Weddle | redraft #5 |
| 38 | Zach Miller | redraft #54 |
| 39 | Justin Blalock | redraft #19 |
| 41 | Chris Houston | redraft #52 |
| 42 | Tony Ugoh | redraft #79 |
| 43 | Drew Stanton | redraft #118 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.