Xavier McKinney
S, Alabama · 2020 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #36 (NYG)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #17 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#36). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Alabama: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.63 40-yard dash at 201 lbs: faster than 6% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
S (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 81 of ~101 possible regular-season games from 2020 through 2025 (~80%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 88 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 39 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 3.1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 42.1 |
| Defense | 308 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 22 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 201 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.63 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 36" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| Arm / hand | 30.88" / 8.63" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #17 overall (#1 S) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 33 | Tee Higgins | redraft #13 |
| 34 | Michael Pittman Jr. | redraft #15 |
| 35 | D'Andre Swift | redraft #10 |
| 37 | Kyle Dugger | redraft #47 |
| 38 | Yetur Gross-Matos | redraft #83 |
| 39 | Robert Hunt | redraft #35 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.