William Sherman
OL, Colorado · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #197 (NWE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #294 (#23 at his position); he went #197, 97 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 7 of ~85 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2025 (~8%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Colorado: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.19 40-yard dash at 304 lbs: faster than 55% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
OL (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 14 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 1.1 |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 304 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.19 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 26" |
| Broad jump | 108" |
| 3-cone | 7.71 s |
| Shuttle | 4.82 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.5" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #294 overall (#23 OL) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 194 | Elijah Mitchell | redraft #105 |
| 195 | Roy Lopez | redraft #51 |
| 196 | Gary Brightwell | redraft #195 |
| 198 | Larry Rountree | redraft #199 |
| 199 | Jaylen Twyman | redraft #253 |
| 200 | Brandin Echols | redraft #104 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.