Elijah Mitchell
RB, Louisiana · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #194 (SFO)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #211 (#14 at his position), close to where he went (#194). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Louisiana: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.38 40-yard dash at 201 lbs: faster than 92% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 28 of ~85 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2025 (~33%).
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 28 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 11 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 11.0 |
| Rushing | 327 att, 1,523 yds, 9 TD |
| Receiving | 28 rec, 158 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 201 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.38 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Vertical | 37.5" |
| Broad jump | 128" |
| 3-cone | 6.94 s |
| Shuttle | 4.19 s |
| Arm / hand | 31" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #211 overall (#14 RB) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 191 | Tarron Jackson | redraft #198 |
| 192 | Quinton Bohanna | redraft #124 |
| 193 | Deonte Brown | redraft #237 |
| 195 | Roy Lopez | redraft #51 |
| 196 | Gary Brightwell | redraft #195 |
| 197 | William Sherman | redraft #194 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.