Roy Lopez
DL, Arizona · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #195 (HOU)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 79 of ~85 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2025 (~93%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #350 (#22 at his position); he went #195, 155 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Arizona: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
No NFL Combine invite on record (nflverse combine data), so teams had less verified testing on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 49% of the time (905 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DL (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 86 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 22 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.6 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 23.6 |
| Defense | 91 tackles, 6 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine No Combine invite | 49.0% n=905 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 304 lbs |
| Arm / hand | 32" / 9.88" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #350 overall (#22 DL) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 192 | Quinton Bohanna | redraft #124 |
| 193 | Deonte Brown | redraft #237 |
| 194 | Elijah Mitchell | redraft #105 |
| 196 | Gary Brightwell | redraft #195 |
| 197 | William Sherman | redraft #194 |
| 198 | Larry Rountree | redraft #199 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.