Will Sutton
DT, Arizona St. · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #82 (CHI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #129 (#14 at his position); he went #82, 47 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Arizona St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.36 40-yard dash at 303 lbs: faster than 2% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 36 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2016 (~75%). Last NFL season: 2016.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 36 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 8 |
| Defense | 39 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 303 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.36 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 28.5" |
| Broad jump | 99" |
| 3-cone | 7.93 s |
| Shuttle | 4.82 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.2" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #129 overall (#14 DT) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 79 | Terrence Brooks | redraft #128 |
| 80 | Dexter McDougle | redraft #185 |
| 81 | Gabe Jackson | redraft #27 |
| 83 | Louis Nix | redraft #221 |
| 84 | Kareem Martin | redraft #109 |
| 85 | Khyri Thornton | redraft #171 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.