Louis Nix
DT, Notre Dame · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #83 (HOU)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 4 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2015 (~13%). Last NFL season: 2015.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #36 overall (#2 at his position), but he lasted until pick #83: teams let him slide 47 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Notre Dame: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.32 40-yard dash at 331 lbs: faster than 3% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 4 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 331 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.32 s |
| Vertical | 25.5" |
| Broad jump | 97" |
| 3-cone | 8.29 s |
| Shuttle | 4.94 s |
| Arm / hand | 33" / 9.7" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #36 overall (#2 DT) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 80 | Dexter McDougle | redraft #185 |
| 81 | Gabe Jackson | redraft #27 |
| 82 | Will Sutton | redraft #124 |
| 84 | Kareem Martin | redraft #109 |
| 85 | Khyri Thornton | redraft #171 |
| 86 | Josh Huff | redraft #139 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.