Whitney Mercilus
DE, Illinois · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #26 (HOU)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 138 of ~161 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2021 (~86%). Last NFL season: 2021.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #32 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#26).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Illinois: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.68 40-yard dash at 261 lbs: faster than 87% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 138 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 8 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 49 |
| Defense | 237 tackles, 58 sacks, 2 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 261 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.68 s |
| Bench press | 27 reps |
| Vertical | 32" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 7.17 s |
| Shuttle | 4.53 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.7" / 9.2" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #32 overall (#5 DE) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 23 | Riley Reiff | redraft #18 |
| 24 | David DeCastro | redraft #15 |
| 25 | Dont'a Hightower | redraft #17 |
| 27 | Kevin Zeitler | redraft #16 |
| 28 | Nick Perry | redraft #72 |
| 29 | Harrison Smith | redraft #12 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.