Harrison Smith
DB, Notre Dame · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #29 (MIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 212 of ~229 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2025 (career total from PFR, which may already include some 2026 games) (~93%).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #29 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#29). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Notre Dame: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.54 40-yard dash at 213 lbs: faster than 27% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 212 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 13 |
| Pro Bowls | 6 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 72 |
| Defense | 864 tackles, 21.5 sacks, 39 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 213 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.54 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| 3-cone | 6.63 s |
| Shuttle | 4.12 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.5" / 10.2" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #29 overall (#2 DB) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 26 | Whitney Mercilus | redraft #31 |
| 27 | Kevin Zeitler | redraft #16 |
| 28 | Nick Perry | redraft #72 |
| 30 | A.J. Jenkins | redraft #182 |
| 31 | Doug Martin | redraft #47 |
| 32 | David Wilson | redraft #149 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.