Doug Martin
RB, Boise St. · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #31 (TAM)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #26 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#31).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Boise St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at 223 lbs: faster than 72% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 84 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2018 (~75%). Last NFL season: 2018.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 84 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 39 |
| Rushing | 1322 att, 5,356 yds, 30 TD |
| Receiving | 148 rec, 1,207 yds, 2 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 9", 223 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.46 s |
| Bench press | 28 reps |
| Vertical | 36" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| 3-cone | 6.79 s |
| Shuttle | 4.16 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.4" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #26 overall (#2 RB) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 28 | Nick Perry | redraft #72 |
| 29 | Harrison Smith | redraft #12 |
| 30 | A.J. Jenkins | redraft #182 |
| 32 | David Wilson | redraft #149 |
| 33 | Brian Quick | redraft #110 |
| 34 | Coby Fleener | redraft #66 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.