Vince Mayle
WR, Washington St. · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #123 (CLE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 23 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2017 (~48%). Last NFL season: 2017.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #151 (#23 at his position), close to where he went (#123).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Washington St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.67 40-yard dash at 224 lbs: faster than 2% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 23 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Rushing | 2 att, 2 yds, 1 TD |
| Defense | 9 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 224 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.67 s |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| 3-cone | 6.93 s |
| Shuttle | 4.13 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #151 overall (#23 WR) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 120 | Josh Shaw | redraft #124 |
| 121 | Doran Grant | redraft #215 |
| 122 | Za'Darius Smith | redraft #14 |
| 124 | Kwon Alexander | redraft #32 |
| 125 | Javorius Allen | redraft #96 |
| 126 | Mike Davis | redraft #80 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.