Kwon Alexander
OLB, LSU · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #124 (TAM)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age, position. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #92 overall (#10 at his position), but he lasted until pick #124: teams let him slide 32 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
OLB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
LSU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.55 40-yard dash at 227 lbs: faster than 83% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 109 of ~164 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2024 (~66%). Last NFL season: 2024.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 109 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 43 |
| Defense | 449 tackles, 13.5 sacks, 9 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 227 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.55 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 36" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| 3-cone | 7.14 s |
| Shuttle | 4.2 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #92 overall (#10 OLB) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 121 | Doran Grant | redraft #215 |
| 122 | Za'Darius Smith | redraft #14 |
| 123 | Vince Mayle | redraft #206 |
| 125 | Javorius Allen | redraft #96 |
| 126 | Mike Davis | redraft #80 |
| 127 | Damien Wilson | redraft #58 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.