Javorius Allen
RB, USC · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #125 (BAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #89 overall (#8 at his position), but he lasted until pick #125: teams let him slide 36 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
USC: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.53 40-yard dash at 221 lbs: faster than 50% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 64 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2019 (~80%). Last NFL season: 2019.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 64 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 14 |
| Rushing | 350 att, 1,285 yds, 9 TD |
| Receiving | 130 rec, 823 yds, 6 TD |
| Defense | 11 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 221 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.53 s |
| Bench press | 11 reps |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| 3-cone | 6.96 s |
| Shuttle | 4.28 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #89 overall (#8 RB) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 122 | Za'Darius Smith | redraft #14 |
| 123 | Vince Mayle | redraft #206 |
| 124 | Kwon Alexander | redraft #32 |
| 126 | Mike Davis | redraft #80 |
| 127 | Damien Wilson | redraft #58 |
| 128 | Jon Feliciano | redraft #66 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.