Trent Williams
T, Oklahoma · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #4 (WAS)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #6 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#4).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oklahoma: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.81 40-yard dash at 315 lbs: faster than 99% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 210 of ~261 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2025 (career total from PFR, which may already include some 2026 games) (~80%).
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 210 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 15 |
| Pro Bowls | 12 |
| First-team All-Pro | 3 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 109 |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 315 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.81 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 113" |
| 3-cone | 7.64 s |
| Shuttle | 4.63 s |
| Arm / hand | 34.2" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #6 overall (#2 T) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 1 | Sam Bradford | redraft #38 |
| 2 | Ndamukong Suh | redraft #2 |
| 3 | Gerald McCoy | redraft #14 |
| 5 | Eric Berry | redraft #30 |
| 6 | Russell Okung | redraft #26 |
| 7 | Joe Haden | redraft #20 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.