Gerald McCoy
DT, Oklahoma · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #3 (TAM)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #1 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#3).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oklahoma: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.04 40-yard dash at 295 lbs: faster than 28% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 140 of ~193 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2021 (~73%). Last NFL season: 2021.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 140 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 10 |
| Pro Bowls | 6 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 69 |
| Defense | 235 tackles, 59.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 295 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.04 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 30.5" |
| Broad jump | 114" |
| 3-cone | 7.32 s |
| Shuttle | 4.48 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.6" / 10.25" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #1 overall (#1 DT) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 1 | Sam Bradford | redraft #38 |
| 2 | Ndamukong Suh | redraft #2 |
| 4 | Trent Williams | redraft #1 |
| 5 | Eric Berry | redraft #30 |
| 6 | Russell Okung | redraft #26 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.