Sam Bradford
QB, Oklahoma · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #1 (STL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 83 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2018 (~58%). Last NFL season: 2018.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #3 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#1).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oklahoma: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.79 40-yard dash at 236 lbs: faster than 53% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 83 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 44 |
| Passing | 1855/2967, 19,449 yds, 103 TD, 61 INT |
| Rushing | 146 att, 340 yds, 2 TD |
| Receiving | 1 rec, 5 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 236 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.79 s |
| Arm / hand | 34.3" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #3 overall (#1 QB) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 2 | Ndamukong Suh | redraft #2 |
| 3 | Gerald McCoy | redraft #14 |
| 4 | Trent Williams | redraft #1 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.