Trent Cole
DE, Cincinnati · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #146 (PHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 176 of ~192 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2016 (~92%). Last NFL season: 2016.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #169 (#15 at his position), close to where he went (#146). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Cincinnati: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.70 40-yard dash at 236 lbs: faster than 84% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 176 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 68 |
| Defense | 467 tackles, 90.5 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 236 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.70 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #169 overall (#15 DE) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 143 | Junius Coston | redraft #144 |
| 144 | Jerome Collins | redraft #212 |
| 145 | Dan Orlovsky | redraft #133 |
| 147 | Alphonso Hodge | redraft #230 |
| 148 | Jonathan Welsh | redraft #206 |
| 149 | Adam Seward | redraft #150 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.