Jonathan Welsh
DE, Wisconsin · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #148 (IND)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 6 of ~16 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2005 (~38%). Last NFL season: 2005.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #115 overall (#10 at his position), but he lasted until pick #148: teams let him slide 33 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Wisconsin: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.61 40-yard dash at 244 lbs: faster than 94% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 6 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2005 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 244 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.61 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 40.5" |
| Broad jump | 130" |
| 3-cone | 7.83 s |
| Shuttle | 4.22 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #115 overall (#10 DE) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 145 | Dan Orlovsky | redraft #133 |
| 146 | Trent Cole | redraft #11 |
| 147 | Alphonso Hodge | redraft #230 |
| 149 | Adam Seward | redraft #150 |
| 150 | Daniel Loper | redraft #134 |
| 151 | Drew Hodgdon | redraft #157 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.