Dan Orlovsky
QB, Connecticut · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #145 (DET)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #126 (#10 at his position), close to where he went (#145).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Connecticut: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.93 40-yard dash at 225 lbs: faster than 19% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 26 of ~176 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2015 (~15%). Last NFL season: 2015.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 26 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 7 |
| Passing | 298/512, 3,132 yds, 15 TD, 13 INT |
| Rushing | 13 att, 34 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 225 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.93 s |
| Vertical | 29.5" |
| Broad jump | 107" |
| 3-cone | 7.33 s |
| Shuttle | 4.39 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #126 overall (#10 QB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 142 | Damien Nash | redraft #189 |
| 143 | Junius Coston | redraft #144 |
| 144 | Jerome Collins | redraft #212 |
| 146 | Trent Cole | redraft #11 |
| 147 | Alphonso Hodge | redraft #230 |
| 148 | Jonathan Welsh | redraft #206 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.