Travis Swanson
C, Arkansas · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #76 (DET)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
C (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #175 (#4 at his position); he went #76, 99 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Arkansas: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.28 40-yard dash at 312 lbs: faster than 33% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 65 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2018 (~81%). Last NFL season: 2018.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 65 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 23 |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 312 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.28 s |
| Bench press | 20 reps |
| Vertical | 26" |
| Broad jump | 95" |
| 3-cone | 7.73 s |
| Shuttle | 4.65 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.1" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #175 overall (#4 C) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 73 | Preston Brown | redraft #43 |
| 74 | Jay Bromley | redraft #146 |
| 75 | Tre Mason | redraft #125 |
| 77 | Chris Borland | redraft #141 |
| 78 | Spencer Long | redraft #77 |
| 79 | Terrence Brooks | redraft #128 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.