Preston Brown
LB, Louisville · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #73 (BUF)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #113 (#3 at his position); he went #73, 40 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Louisville: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.86 40-yard dash at 251 lbs: faster than 5% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 81 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2019 (~84%). Last NFL season: 2019.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 81 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 34 |
| Defense | 350 tackles, 1 sacks, 5 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 251 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.86 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 116" |
| 3-cone | 6.98 s |
| Shuttle | 4.26 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.4" / 10.2" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #113 overall (#3 LB) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 70 | Marcus Martin | redraft #110 |
| 71 | Christian Kirksey | redraft #35 |
| 72 | Scott Crichton | redraft #178 |
| 74 | Jay Bromley | redraft #146 |
| 75 | Tre Mason | redraft #125 |
| 76 | Travis Swanson | redraft #73 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.