Jay Bromley
DT, Syracuse · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #74 (NYG)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #196 (#20 at his position); he went #74, 122 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Syracuse: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.06 40-yard dash at 306 lbs: faster than 25% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 57 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2018 (~71%). Last NFL season: 2018.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 57 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 5 |
| Defense | 50 tackles, 2 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 306 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.06 s |
| Bench press | 26 reps |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 106" |
| 3-cone | 7.92 s |
| Shuttle | 4.78 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.4" / 9.2" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #196 overall (#20 DT) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 71 | Christian Kirksey | redraft #35 |
| 72 | Scott Crichton | redraft #178 |
| 73 | Preston Brown | redraft #43 |
| 75 | Tre Mason | redraft #125 |
| 76 | Travis Swanson | redraft #73 |
| 77 | Chris Borland | redraft #141 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.