Travis Kelce
TE, Cincinnati · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #63 (KAN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 197 of ~213 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2025 (career total from PFR, which may already include some 2026 games) (~92%).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #61 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#63). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Cincinnati: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.63 40-yard dash at 255 lbs: faster than 76% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 197 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 12 |
| Pro Bowls | 11 |
| First-team All-Pro | 4 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 94 |
| Passing | 1/3, 4 yds, undefined TD, 1 INT |
| Rushing | 10 att, 16 yds, 2 TD |
| Receiving | 1100 rec, 13,301 yds, 84 TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 255 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.63 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.6" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #61 overall (#4 TE) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 60 | Robert Alford | redraft #59 |
| 61 | Eddie Lacy | redraft #41 |
| 62 | Christine Michael | redraft #122 |
| 64 | Dwayne Gratz | redraft #116 |
| 65 | Larry Warford | redraft #21 |
| 66 | Sio Moore | redraft #97 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.