Larry Warford
G, Kentucky · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #65 (DET)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
G (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 101 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2019 (~90%). Last NFL season: 2019.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #54 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#65). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Kentucky: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.58 40-yard dash at 332 lbs: faster than 1% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 101 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 3 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 52 |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 332 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.58 s |
| Bench press | 28 reps |
| Vertical | 22.5" |
| Broad jump | 96" |
| 3-cone | 7.78 s |
| Shuttle | 5.1 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.3" / 9.4" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #54 overall (#4 G) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 62 | Christine Michael | redraft #122 |
| 63 | Travis Kelce | redraft #1 |
| 64 | Dwayne Gratz | redraft #116 |
| 66 | Sio Moore | redraft #97 |
| 67 | Bennie Logan | redraft #54 |
| 68 | Leon McFadden | redraft #187 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.