Trai Turner
OL, LSU · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #92 (CAR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
OL (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 126 of ~146 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2022 (~86%). Last NFL season: 2022.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #65 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#92). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
LSU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.93 40-yard dash at 310 lbs: faster than 95% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 126 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 5 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 51 |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 310 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.93 s |
| Bench press | 25 reps |
| Vertical | 27.5" |
| Arm / hand | 34" / 9.4" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #65 overall (#2 OL) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 89 | Chris Watt | redraft #149 |
| 90 | Donte Moncrief | redraft #85 |
| 91 | John Brown | redraft #41 |
| 93 | Brandon Linder | redraft #54 |
| 94 | Terrance West | redraft #113 |
| 95 | Michael Schofield | redraft #39 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.