John Brown
WR, Pittsburg St. · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #91 (ARI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #137 (#21 at his position); he went #91, 46 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Pittsburg St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.34 40-yard dash at 179 lbs: faster than 91% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 103 of ~146 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2022 (~71%). Last NFL season: 2022.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 103 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 36 |
| Passing | 1/1, 28 yds, 1 TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 13 att, 47 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 321 rec, 4,790 yds, 32 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 179 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.34 s |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 119" |
| 3-cone | 6.91 s |
| Shuttle | 4.12 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.4" / 8.4" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #137 overall (#21 WR) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 88 | Will Clarke | redraft #143 |
| 89 | Chris Watt | redraft #149 |
| 90 | Donte Moncrief | redraft #85 |
| 92 | Trai Turner | redraft #21 |
| 93 | Brandon Linder | redraft #54 |
| 94 | Terrance West | redraft #113 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.