Donte Moncrief
WR, Mississippi · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #90 (IND)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #99 (#16 at his position), close to where he went (#90).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Mississippi: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.40 40-yard dash at 221 lbs: faster than 77% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 83 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2020 (~74%). Last NFL season: 2020.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 83 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 18 |
| Rushing | 6 att, 20 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 205 rec, 2,576 yds, 21 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 221 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.40 s |
| Bench press | 13 reps |
| Vertical | 39.5" |
| Broad jump | 132" |
| 3-cone | 7.02 s |
| Shuttle | 4.3 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.3" / 9.1" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #99 overall (#16 WR) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 87 | Phillip Gaines | redraft #116 |
| 88 | Will Clarke | redraft #143 |
| 89 | Chris Watt | redraft #149 |
| 91 | John Brown | redraft #41 |
| 92 | Trai Turner | redraft #21 |
| 93 | Brandon Linder | redraft #54 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.