Tommie Harris
DT, Oklahoma · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #14 (CHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 117 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2011 (~91%). Last NFL season: 2011.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #15 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#14).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oklahoma: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.78 40-yard dash at 295 lbs: faster than 72% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 117 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 3 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 56 |
| Defense | 187 tackles, 31.5 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2011 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 295 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.78 s |
| Bench press | 29 reps |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #15 overall (#2 DT) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 11 | Ben Roethlisberger | redraft #2 |
| 12 | Jonathan Vilma | redraft #19 |
| 13 | Lee Evans | redraft #26 |
| 15 | Michael Clayton | redraft #78 |
| 16 | Shawn Andrews | redraft #44 |
| 17 | D.J. Williams | redraft #25 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.