Ben Roethlisberger
QB, Miami (OH) · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #11 (PIT)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 249 of ~289 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2021 (~86%). Last NFL season: 2021.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #4 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#11).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Miami (OH): not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.75 40-yard dash at 241 lbs: faster than 63% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 249 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 17 |
| Pro Bowls | 6 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 131 |
| Passing | 5440/8443, 64,088 yds, 418 TD, 211 INT |
| Rushing | 515 att, 1,373 yds, 20 TD |
| Receiving | 2 rec, -12 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 241 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.75 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #4 overall (#1 QB) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 8 | DeAngelo Hall | redraft #15 |
| 9 | Reggie Williams | redraft #76 |
| 10 | Dunta Robinson | redraft #34 |
| 12 | Jonathan Vilma | redraft #19 |
| 13 | Lee Evans | redraft #26 |
| 14 | Tommie Harris | redraft #18 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.