Tom Savage
QB, Pittsburgh · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #135 (HOU)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 13 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2017 (~20%). Last NFL season: 2017.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #68 overall (#6 at his position), but he lasted until pick #135: teams let him slide 67 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Pittsburgh: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.97 40-yard dash at 228 lbs: faster than 13% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 13 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| Passing | 181/315, 2,000 yds, 5 TD, 7 INT |
| Rushing | 16 att, 8 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 228 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.97 s |
| Vertical | 27" |
| Broad jump | 105" |
| 3-cone | 7.33 s |
| Shuttle | 4.36 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.5" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #68 overall (#6 QB) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 132 | Kevin Pierre-Louis | redraft #94 |
| 133 | Nevin Lawson | redraft #76 |
| 134 | Brent Urban | redraft #68 |
| 136 | Larry Webster | redraft #226 |
| 137 | Dakota Dozier | redraft #107 |
| 138 | Lorenzo Taliaferro | redraft #166 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.