Dakota Dozier
OL, Furman · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #137 (NYJ)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
OL (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #249 (#19 at his position); he went #137, 112 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Furman: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.42 40-yard dash at 313 lbs: faster than 10% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 76 of ~129 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2021 (~59%). Last NFL season: 2021.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 76 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 13 |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 313 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.42 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 24" |
| Broad jump | 101" |
| 3-cone | 8.14 s |
| Shuttle | 4.89 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.7" / 9.7" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #249 overall (#19 OL) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 134 | Brent Urban | redraft #68 |
| 135 | Tom Savage | redraft #167 |
| 136 | Larry Webster | redraft #226 |
| 138 | Lorenzo Taliaferro | redraft #166 |
| 139 | Prince Shembo | redraft #181 |
| 140 | Cameron Fleming | redraft #57 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.