Toby Gerhart
RB, Stanford · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #51 (MIN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #56 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#51).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Stanford: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.50 40-yard dash at 231 lbs: faster than 58% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 82 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2015 (~85%). Last NFL season: 2015.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 82 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 16 |
| Rushing | 397 att, 1,675 yds, 7 TD |
| Receiving | 100 rec, 809 yds, 3 TD |
| Defense | 7 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 231 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.50 s |
| Bench press | 22 reps |
| Vertical | 38" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 6.94 s |
| Shuttle | 4.25 s |
| Arm / hand | 32" / 9.6" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #56 overall (#4 RB) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 48 | Jimmy Clausen | redraft #168 |
| 49 | Taylor Mays | redraft #123 |
| 50 | Javier Arenas | redraft #121 |
| 52 | Jason Worilds | redraft #72 |
| 53 | Jermaine Cunningham | redraft #129 |
| 54 | Carlos Dunlap | redraft #17 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.