Carlos Dunlap
DE, Florida · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #54 (CIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 197 of ~210 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2022 (~94%). Last NFL season: 2022.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #42 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#54). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.68 40-yard dash at 277 lbs: faster than 87% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 197 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 67 |
| Defense | 384 tackles, 100 sacks, 2 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 277 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.68 s |
| Bench press | 21 reps |
| Vertical | 31.5" |
| Broad jump | 111" |
| 3-cone | 7.21 s |
| Shuttle | 4.61 s |
| Arm / hand | 34.6" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #42 overall (#4 DE) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 51 | Toby Gerhart | redraft #94 |
| 52 | Jason Worilds | redraft #72 |
| 53 | Jermaine Cunningham | redraft #129 |
| 55 | Sean Lee | redraft #27 |
| 56 | Mike Neal | redraft #89 |
| 57 | Terrence Cody | redraft #100 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.